1. Introduction
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The 2017 Annual meeting of the International Space Environment Service was held at the Omni Hotel in Broomfield, Colorado, USA. The meeting was attended by 23 participants from 12 countries, including 9 Regional Warning Centers (RWCs), one collaborative expert center (CEC) (ESA), and two observer organizations (Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, UK, and China Meteorological Administration).
This report reflects discussions that took place during the meeting among the participants. All members are encouraged to refine and contribute to the activities discussed. All meeting presentations and reports will be made available on the ISES website. Actions are described as agreed upon by meeting participants, but are open to revision by all ISES members. Members are encouraged to contact action leaders to join action groups at any time.
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2. Director’s Report and Action Item Review
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The ISES director’s report was presented by Terry Onsager. The report summarized a number of recent ISES accomplishments and the status of actions since the 2015 Annual Meeting. No annual meeting was held in 2016 due to the cancellation of the COSPAR Assembly.
Since 2015, ISES has welcomed two new Regional Warning Centers, Mexico and Indonesia. ISES now has 18 Regional Warning Centers (RWCs), three Associate Warning Centers (AWCs), and one Collaborative Expert Center (CEC).
Through effort led by Robyn Fiori and a dedicated team, a substantial re-write of the ISES Constitution has been achieved. A few remaining substantive issues requiring further discussion were on the agenda for this meeting. Under a team led by Graham Steward, an ISES Product Inventory has been compiled, including metadata decided at the 2015 meeting. This product documentation will serve many purposes, including aiding the selection of key information that can be made rapidly available during extreme events. These accomplishments and next steps are described in more detail below. Numerous additional accomplishments were described in detail in the individual annual reports submitted by the ISES Members. These include progress on observing systems, product development, customer-outreach activities, training activities, and economic impact studies.
A number of complementary international activities were noted, all of which include substantial participation by ISES members. These include: the recently established WMO Inter-Programme Team on Space Weather Information, Systems and Services (IPT-SWeISS); the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) effort to define space weather service requirements and criteria for information providers; the Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites (CGMS), which has now included space weather tasks in its High Level Priority Plan; and the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS), which has formed a space weather expert group and is developing the UNISPACE+50 initiative.
A special report of the Inter-Agency Meeting on Outer Space Activities on developments within the UN related to space weather is currently being drafted. This report describes the role of ISES in providing space weather services. All ISES members were given the opportunity to comment on the draft text. Also related to these UN activities is the development of the UNISPACE+50 event by the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS). This event will be held in summer 2018, and it is intended to celebrate the past 50 years of UN involvement in promoting cooperation in space and to provide a roadmap for UN collaboration out to 2030. One of the seven thematic priorities selected for UNISPACE+50 is the international framework for space weather services. Development of this framework for international coordination and information exchange on space weather is underway.
Many changes are occurring around the world regarding space weather. New activities are being initiated in individual countries and new activities are being initiated through international organizations. As an increasing number of organizations become involved in space weather, the immediate question raised is how we can use the ISES network to focus the growing global interest on improving the services we provide. This is the challenge we together must address. Future efforts to address this challenge include: understanding of social/economic impacts; sharing user needs and post-event information; providing rapid dissemination of event information; agreeing to common verification techniques and metrics; sharing research and application developments; and developing standard training on operational procedures.
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The status of actions from the 2015 annual meeting is as follows:
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Action 1: Investigate how the International Geophysical Calendar is being used and recommend whether or not it should be discontinued. (Completed)
- A report on this action was completed by Robyn Fiori and KiChang Yoon. An analysis of the user community indicated that although the user group is small and dominated by the Incoherent Scatter Radar researchers, the calendar was found to be beneficial. The recommendation was made to continue the calendar and to improve its visibility and usefulness. The recommendation was agreed to by ISES members.
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Action 2: Write a new draft of a formal constitution. (Finish during this meeting or shortly after)
- A revised constitution has been drafted, led by Robyn Fiori, and remaining issues will be discuss at this meeting and continuing until consensus is reached.
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Action 3: Collect product specifications from ISES members. (Progress made, input from some RWCs still needed)
- A listing of products issued by the Regional Warning Centers has been compiled, led by Graham Steward, including metadata agreed by ISES members to describe the products. Not all ISES members have contributed.
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Action 4: Survey RWCs and AWCs to determine what products they want to be accessible. (Ongoing – to be addressed at this meeting)
- To be discussed at this meeting.
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Action 5: Evaluate use of URSIgram codes. (Largely complete. Next steps need to be discussed.)
- An evaluation of the use of URSIgram codes was conducted by Ljubomir Nikolic. Nine Regional Warning Centers responded to the survey. It was found that many RWCs continue to use the URSIgram codes, but some do not. Although the URSIgram codes are still considered useful, it was recommended that new formats be explored, and the creation of new descriptions of solar features, such as filaments and neutral lines was recommended.
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Actions from the 2015 Forecast Verification meeting:
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Action FV1: Identify the groups issuing probabilistic forecasts and collect information about the techniques being used. (In progress)
- A compilation of information regarding probabilistic forecasts made by ISES members was organized by Andy Devos. It was agreed at the 2015 ISES annual meeting that probabilistic forecasts should be an ISES standard, and this collection of information was intended to assist a working group to consider the possible standardization of some aspects of forecasts.
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Action FV2: From the information gathered in Action 1, lead an effort to make recommendations on which verification techniques should be used for probabilistic forecasts. (To be discussed at this meeting)
- A questionnaire was sent to the ISES members to document information on the verification techniques used for flare forecasts. Although there are similarities in the approaches, there is also sufficient variety that some clarification or standardization may be needed before recommendations can be made. ISES members who did not respond to this questionnaire should be encouraged to do so, and then information gathered can be the basis for further actions.
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Action FV3: Compile a list of groups producing forecasts (not just RWCs) so that these groups can be contacted to provide information for Action FV1. (Defer?)
- The current ISES members probably provide an adequate set of examples for these actions. If additional input is required, that can be considered at a later date.
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Action FV4: Compile a spreadsheet to define in a common and full way the basic information about our regional TEC map products. (Defer?)
- A spreadsheet was created by Rob Steenburgh and Mihail Codrescu with the attributes of some TEC products. This is available to build on for future comparisons.
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3. Introduction to RWC Mexico
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Américo Gonzales-Esparza described the background and recent progress of space weather efforts in Mexico. In 2014, the General Civil Protection Law in Mexico was modified to include references to space weather phenomena. Later that same year, the Mexican Space Weather Service (SCiESMEX) was created. Subsequently in 2015, SCiESMEX became an ISES RWC, and they participate in numerous other international collaborations, including the International Space Weather Initiative, the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, and the World Meteorological Organization. Services provided by SCiESMEX include a warning system adapted to their local region; a web server to store and publish information in Spanish; and email, social media, and SMS delivery of space weather alerts. SCiESMEX utilizes a ground-based instrument network that includes: an Interplanetary Scintillation radio telescope, geomagnetic measurements, cosmic ray and muon detectors, GPS receivers, Schumann resonance measurements, and the Callisto solar radio monitoring system. SCiESMEX also participates in a Working Group on Space Weather in Mexico that coordinates and develops civil protection policies for improving resilience to space weather events.
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4. Introduction to RWC Indonesia
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Tiar Dani of the Space Weather Information and Forecast Services (SWIFtS) of the Space Science Center of LAPAN (Indonesian National Institute of Aeronautics and Space) gave an introduction to this newest ISES RWC. SWIFtS has been operational since March, 2015, and they became an ISES RWC in June, 2016. They provide forecasts and real-time information about the space environment, with an emphasis on ionospheric conditions. They also have a network of solar and magnetospheric data and support Indonesian satellite activities. The main users of SWIFtS services are HF communication users, GPS navigation users, and satellite operators.
Tiar described the legal framework and national activities that involve space weather in Indonesia. These include: the Space Law of the Republic of Indonesia (21/2013); Presidential Decree Number 45/2017; and the Indonesia Space Activities Implementation Master Plan 2016-2040. The space activities include: space science, remote sensing, space technology capability, space launch, and commercialization of space activities. LAPAN is assigned responsibility for space-related activities in Indonesia, including space research and the provision of information regarding space weather, mitigation, and early warning.
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5. Introduction to STFC’s Rutherford Appleton Laboratory – Collaborative Expert Center Applicant
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Prior to this meeting, the UK Science & Technology Facilities Council (STFC) – Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL) applied to become a Collaborative Expert Center of ISES. Mario Bisi summarized activities at RAL and their interest in becoming a member of ISES. STFC’s space department (RAL Space) has a long history of involvement in space environment physics from its inception in 1924, as the Radio Research Station. The first ionosonde project began in 1931 and now contains over 80 years of data. More recently RAL Space has been involved in numerous space weather-related spacecraft missions, including ACE, Cluster, Swarm, SOHO, SMEI, STEREO, and Solar Orbiter. They have strong expertise in ground-based observations for space weather, including ionosondes and radio techniques for remote sensing the solar wind and the ionosphere. RAL has a demonstrated expertise in space weather and a close collaboration with the UK RWC, with an interest in contributing to the improvement of space-weather services for the benefit of ISES.
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6. ISES Member Reports
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Brief reports were given by members on recent accomplishments and priorities. Reports were presented by: AWC China (NSSC), RWC China (SAPC), RWC Brazil (Embrace/INPE), RWC Canada (NRC), RWC UK (Met Office), RWC South Africa (SANSA), RWC Belgium (ROB), RWC Japan (NICT), RWC Korea (Korean Space Weather Center), RWC USA (SWPC/NOAA), and WMO (IPT-SWeISS). The presentations highlighted information contained in the annual reports that will be available on the ISES web site.
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7. Draft Survey on Natural Hazard and Risk Registries
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A survey was discussed to obtain information on the steps member countries are taking to prepare, mitigate, and recover from space weather events. For example, some countries conduct formal national risk assessments and include space weather explicitly as a natural hazard, while other do not. The survey could potentially improve awareness of the different steps various countries are taking to address space weather and perhaps serve to identify best practices and encourage future actions. Although potentially useful, it was decided that no action would be taken at this time.
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8. ISES Constitution
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The last formal constitution was agreed by ISES members in 2000. A decision was made at the 2013 annual meeting to review and revise ISES documents, including the Constitution. It was recognized that much of the text describing the activities and structure of ISES was out of date. With the opening of the new ISES web site hosted by South Korea in 2013, much of the text was revised and approved by ISES member, including text under the “Constitution” section of the web site. Although this revised text was a clear improvement, the text did not represent an explicit constitution. Consequently, the decision was made at the 2015 annual meeting to draft a new formal constitution.
A team led by Robyn Fiori conducted a major re-write of the ISES constitution. The new constitution underwent revisions and review by numerous team members and was distributed to all ISES members. Although this is good agreement on the majority of the text, a number of issues requiring additional discussion were addressed. The major issues that were address are listed below, and the preliminary consensus is indicated.
- Proposed Secretary for Website
- It was agreed that a secretary position for the web site maintenance effort was desired. The title “Secretary for ISES Web Presence” was preferred.
- Voting structure (RWCs, AWCs, CECs) and requirements for adoption
- Only RWCs vote, with one vote per RWC.
- Majority/super-majority requirement for voting
- Two-thirds vote required.
- Requirement to produce GEOALERTs
- The requirement to produce GEOALERTs will be deleted.
- Requirement for government endorsement
- RWCs require government endorsement. AWCs and CECs do not.
- Definition of AWC/RWC affiliation
- AWCs require affiliation with an existing RWC, but do not need government endorsement.
- Agreement on ISES Mission Statement
- ISES Mission Statement: The mission of ISES is to deliver, coordinate and improve operational space weather services. This is accomplished through the rapid exchange of space environment information; the sharing of best practices for data analysis and product development; and the open dissemination of products and services. ISES is organized and operated for the benefit of the international space weather user community.
- Achieve consensus on issues. (Final approval to be obtained by all members via email).
ACTION 1: Disseminate the updated constitution and reach consensus on updates.
- Action group members (using the same team as from the previous action): Robyn Fiori (lead), Mark Gibbs, Clezio Marcos De Nardin, Tsutomu Nagatsuma, Siqinq Liu, Larisa Trichtchenko, Terry Onsager
- Timeline: Two months from dissemination of updated constitution.
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9. Status of Product Specifications and Metadata from all Members
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ISES members decided at the 2015 annual meeting to collect information about ISES products, including agreed metadata. Depending on how this information is made available, this could allow users of ISES information to have a better understanding of available products and services, including the regions of applicability of the products. The action from the 2015 annual meeting included collecting product specifications from ISES members and recommending ways to display this information on the ISES web site.
Graham Steward led the action to collect this information. As of the 2017 meeting, nine RWCs and one AWC have submitted information for their products. It was agreed that this action should be completed, with all members either submitting or updating their information.
ACTION 2: Submit the information about your RWC or AWC products, including the agreed metadata. Consider updating the existing information if it has already been submitted.
- Action group members: Graham Steward (lead)
- Timeline: August 15, 2017
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10. Initial Products for Rapid Availability at RWCs and AWCs
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At the 2014 annual meeting it was recognized that there would be numerous benefits from improved coordination and communication of ISES products. An action was decided to recommend a set of common products and information that should be exchanged in machine-readable format and to recommend a format for exchange.
It was further recognized at the 2015 annual meeting that forecaster benefit from having quick access to data and information from other RWCs to make informed decisions. The decision was made to begin by identifying the highest priority information for rapid exchange.
To facilitate the selection of initial products for rapid availability at RWCs and AWCs, a section has been added in each page of the Product Specification spreadsheet created by Graham (as described in Section 8) for all ISES members to indicate which products from the other Centers they wish to consider having rapidly available. As an example, SWPC selected in the first page (Australia) the products from RWC Australia that could be valuable to have immediately and conveniently available. These selections are indicated with the red cells.
There could be different purposes for wanting this information, but one purpose would be to have an immediate global perspective prior to and during an extreme event. It was agreed that all ISES members should consider the information in the Product Specification spreadsheet and consider which key products from each center should be made readily available. It was also discussed that under certain conditions, including extreme events, it could be beneficial to have a direct telephone conversation with another ISES center. It was requested that a phone list be distributed among the centers. Interest was also expressed to have information included on the ISES web site to either link to or provide information regarding the various mechanisms members have for customers to subscribe to their products.
The need for a protocol to guide ISES members during extreme events was also discussed. It was agreed that it would be valuable to draft a set of recommended procedures that would be followed during extreme events that could build confidence and ensure a consistent response during an extreme event.
ACTION 3: Members to indicate the products of the other ISES centers that would be valuable to have immediately and conveniently available. Following this, develop recommendations for the next steps to take to identify and initial set of information and a procedure for making it available.
- Action group members: Catheryn Burnett (lead), Americo Gonzales-Esparza, David Berghmans, Graham Steward, Rob Steenburgh, Mamoru Ishii, and Lorne McKee
- Timeline: : One month after the completion of Action 2 to complete input on products of interest. An additional six months to develop recommendations for next steps.
ACTION 4: Create and distribute a telephone list including all ISES centers.
- Action group members: Volunteer needed to lead
- Timeline: August 15, 2017
ACTION 5: Include links on the ISES web site to the locations on members’ web sites where users can subscribe to products and services. Include additional explanatory information, if needed.
- Action group members: Jae-Hyung Lee (lead)
- Timeline: August 15, 2017
ACTION 6: Draft a protocol for ISES members to follow during extreme events.
- Action group members: Américo Gonzales-Esparza (lead), Catherine Burnett, Terry Onsager, Clezio M. De Nardin, Mamoru Ishii
- Timeline: August 15, 2017
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11. Alternatives to URSIgram Codes
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An evaluation of the use of URSIgram codes was conducted by Ljubomir Nikolic. Nine Regional Warning Centers responded to the survey. It was found that many RWCs continue to use the URSIgram codes, but some do not. Although the URSIgram codes are still considered useful, it was recommended that new formats be explored, and the creation of new descriptions of solar features, such as filaments and neutral lines was recommended.
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12. Forecast Verification Techniques for Probabilistic Forecasts
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The Forecast Verification workshop held in conjunction with the 2015 ISES annual meeting explored issues related to both the forecasts issued by ISES members and the verification techniques used to evaluate them. From the presentations and discussions it was clear that a variety of approaches are taken by the different centers, which can lead to a lack of consistency and confusion. It was agreed that probabilistic forecasts should be an ISES standard, and that verification techniques should be recommended.
A compilation of information regarding probabilistic forecasts made by ISES members was organized by Andy Devos. This collection of information was intended to assist a working group to consider the possible standardization of some aspects of forecasts. In addition, a questionnaire was sent to the ISES members to document information on the verification techniques used for flare forecasts. Although there are similarities in the approaches, there is also sufficient variety that some clarification or standardization may be needed before recommendations can be made.
There was agreement that the actions initiated at the Forecast Verification workshop should be continued, and that teams should reassess the information gather to date and define and a goal for this effort.
David Jackson presented the results of an analysis of UK Met Office forecasts, referring to a recent publication [Sharpe, M., ‘Verification of Space Weather Forecasts issued by the Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre’, submitted to Space Weather, 2017]. The analysis considered a number of different verification metrics and indicated the specific information that each method emphasizes. The experience developed by the Met Office applying various metrics to probabilistic forecasts will be valuable as ISES members consider what could be standard methods among the centers.
ACTION 7: Review the information gathered on probabilistic forecast methods used by ISES centers and make recommendation on possible standardization of probabilistic flare forecasts.
- Action group members: Jesse Andries (lead)
- Timeline: Define a goal and a timeline by September 1, 2017
ACTION 8: Review the information gathered on verification techniques used for probabilistic forecasts. Make recommendations on standardization of verification techniques.
- Action group members: Suzy Bingham (lead)
- Timeline: October 15, 2017
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13. Process of Voting for ISES Officers
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The process for electing ISES officers was discussed. A vote was scheduled to affirm the last three years of the second term of the Director’s current position. The vote was not held last year due to the cancellation of the annual meeting. It was noted that the Deputy Director and the Secretary plan to step down after one more year, so that new candidates will need to volunteer.
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14. Action List
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ACTION 1: Disseminate the updated constitution and reach consensus on updates.
- Action group members (using the same team as from the previous action): Robyn Fiori (lead), Mark Gibbs, Clezio Marcos De Nardin, Tsutomu Nagatsuma, Siqinq Liu, Larisa Trichtchenko, Terry Onsager
- Timeline: Two months from dissemination of updated constitution.
ACTION 2: Submit the information about your RWC or AWC products, including the agreed metadata. Consider updating the existing information if it has already been submitted.
- Action group members: Graham Steward (lead)
- Timeline: August 15, 2017
ACTION 3: Members to indicate the products of the other ISES centers that would be valuable to have immediately and conveniently available. Following this, develop recommendations for the next steps to take to identify and initial set of information and a procedure for making it available.
- Action group members: Catheryn Burnett (lead), Americo Gonzales-Esparza, David Berghmans, Graham Steward, Rob Steenburgh, Mamoru Ishii, and Lorne McKee
- Timeline: : One month after the completion of Action 2 to complete input on products of interest. An additional six months to develop recommendations for next steps.
ACTION 4: Create and distribute a telephone list including all ISES centers.
- Action group members: Volunteer needed to lead
- Timeline: August 15, 2017
ACTION 5: Include links on the ISES web site to the locations on members’ web sites where users can subscribe to products and services. Include additional explanatory information, if needed.
- Action group members: Jae-Hyung Lee (lead)
- Timeline: August 15, 2017
ACTION 6: Draft a protocol for ISES members to follow during extreme events.
- Action group members: Américo Gonzales-Esparza (lead), Catherine Burnett, Terry Onsager, Clezio M. De Nardin, Mamoru Ishii
- Timeline: August 15, 2017
ACTION 7: Review the information gathered on probabilistic forecast methods used by ISES centers and make recommendation on possible standardization of probabilistic flare forecasts.
- Action group members: Jesse Andries (lead)
- Timeline: Define a goal and a timeline by September 1, 2017
ACTION 8: Review the information gathered on verification techniques used for probabilistic forecasts. Make recommendations on standardization of verification techniques.
- Action group members: Suzy Bingham (lead)
- Timeline: October 15, 2017
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